Athena Trading Goal for 2Q_2013

My Trading Goal for 2Q_2013 are:

 

-        Win/Loss        ratio        at     45 / 55     à means every 100 trades, allow up to 55 losing trades

-        Risk/Reward ratio        at     1.5 : 1      à means average winning % is 1.5 times than losing %

-        0%  Regret trade                                  à means I follow entry/exit rule, will do the same trades with no regret

4/19/2013 Weekly Review ... Loss 1.4% for the week or Loss 1% for April

I did a lousy job this week.    Please review the attached review.

 

-          32 trades with only 11 profitable trades or 34.4%.

-          Weekly loss $1852 or -1.4%

Two Reason for the bad performance:

      -          15 trades (48%) are not good entry pattern.

-          Monday big gap down caught me by surprise and fail to react quickly

 Remedy:

 
-          Only trade strict patterns … especially in whipsaw market

-          Will exit when sign of trouble, re-entry when coast is clear

 

Next Week Plan:

-          Follow strict entry pattern à Don’t want to see any ‘Avoid ?’ next week!

-          Better exit management

 

I will follow the plan and present a much better result next week.

Cheers,

Hsin

 

Tick	L/S	Close	In Date	Entry	Share#	P/L	Cost	Comm	Xdate	Exit	P/L%		ATR%	Industry	Entry Comment	Exit Comment	Avoid?
General Market Review:			SPY short term down, mid-term up in support, QQQ in support but ABC conflict, IWM in support, large down volume													Conclusion:  Conflict, Uncertain
FDO	L	62.59	4/18	$61.44	100	$117	$6,144	2.0			1.9%		2.2%	Retail (Specialty)	No pattern, shoundn't enter		Y
NTES	S	52.28	4/18	51.85	100	$45	$5,185	2.0			-0.8%		2.2%	Business Services	Double Top, SB red, resistance, ok
SINA	S	46.26	4/19	46.45	100	-$17	$4,645	2.0			0.4%		3.7%	Computer Services	Reasonable ABC, weekly SB red,  Neg. volume
TS	S	40.64	4/16	39.59	100	$107	$3,959	2.0			-2.7%		2.2%	Constr. - Supplies & Fixtures	Reasonable ABC, weekly SB red,	*SB turn green, need to exit on Monday!
NVDA	L	12.57	4/16	$12.96	300	-$159	$3,888	6.0	4/19	12.41	-4.2%		2.4%	Semiconductors	Weekly PP, ABC, reasonable entry	Tough handle, but should do better
DDD	L	32.94	4/16	$34.12	100	-$132	$3,412	2.0	4/19	32.78	-3.9%		5.0%	Computer Peripherals	Reasonable ABC, weekly SB red, negative volume	Should use gap down exit!
INTC	L	22.24	4/17	$21.82	100	$49	$2,182	2.0	4/18	22.29	2.2%		2.0%	Semiconductors	ABC, reasonable, past earning but still small position	ok exit
FB	L	25.69	4/12	$27.42	100	-$207	$2,742	2.0	4/18	25.33	-7.6%		3.4%	Computer Services	Weekly PP, ABC, reasonable entry	Should use gap down exit!
NSM	L	32.79	4/12	$35.44	100	-$211	$3,544	2.0	4/18	33.31	-6.0%		5.0%	Consumer Financial Services	Reasonable ABC, weekly SB red,	Should use gap down exit!
URBN	L	39.26	4/16	$40.34	100	-$102	$4,034	2.0	4/18	39.3	-2.6%		2.6%	Retail (Apparel)	Not a good ABC, weekly neutral, + volume good	Should use gap down exit!
CE	L	42.23	4/12	$43.75	100	-$189	$4,375	2.0	4/18	41.84	-4.4%		3.2%	Chemical Manufacturing	Reasonable ABC, weekly SB red, negative volume	Should use gap down exit!	Y
CSTR	L	54.26	4/17	$57.70	60	-$192	$3,462	2.0	4/18	54.46	-5.6%		2.8%	Recreational Activities	Reasonable ABC, weekly SB ok, 22 min entry ok	Should use gap down exit!
LMCA	L	108.89	4/12	$112.90	30	-$138	$3,387	2.0	4/18	108.23	-4.1%		2.2%	Communications Services	No pattern at all, what am I doing??? 22 min no BZ	Should use gap down exit!	Y
EXC	S	36.46	4/16	35.86	100	$62	$3,586	2.0	4/18	36.46	-1.7%		1.2%	Electric Utilities	ABC top, but SB still green, shound't enry	Should exit above squeezed	Y
KLAC	L	52.75	4/16	$52.71	100	$28	$5,271	2.0	4/17	52.97	0.5%		2.2%	Semiconductors	ABC, in 50 MA resistance, not an A trade, so lots of whipsaw	ok survive in whipsaw, not worth the effort to entry
A	L	42.2	4/16	$43.38	100	-$136	$4,338	2.0	4/17	42	-3.2%		2.4%	Electronic Instr. & Controls	**Must Respect Down Volume	**Must Respect Down Volume	Y
OXY	L	80.45	4/12	$83.01	50	-$144	$4,151	2.0	4/17	80.1	-3.5%		2.2%	Oil & Gas - Integrated	Weekly PP, ABC, reasonable entry	Should use gap down exit!
SLB	L	70.96	4/12	$75.39	40	-$168	$3,016	2.0	4/17	71.15	-5.6%		2.4%	Oil Well Services & Equipment	Lots of negative volume, weekly chart negative	Should use gap down exit!	Y
HMSY	S	25.65	4/15	$26.44	200	-$142	$5,288	4.0	4/17	25.71	2.8%		3.2%	Healthcare Facilities	ABC, short at resistance	Reasonable exit, can use protect profit for better potential return
CCJ	S	17.65	4/11	$19.53	200	-$346	$3,906	4.0	4/17	17.78	9.0%		2.8%	Metal Mining	ABC, short at resistance	*Take half profit on both 4/17 & 4/18
INTC	L	21.98	4/12	$21.60	100	$92	$2,160	2.0	4/16	22.5	4.2%		1.9%	Semiconductors	ABC, reasonable, pending earning so small position	*Exit after hour with earning announcement
JNPR	L	18.14	4/12	$18.41	150	-$40	$2,762	3.0	4/16	18.12	-1.6%		3.4%	Communications Equipment	Reasonable ABC, weekly SB red,	Good exit to avoid mistake
RGR	L	48.56	4/16	$48.47	100	-$5	$4,847	2.0	4/16	48.4	-0.1%		3.4%	Recreational Products	No pattern	Good exit to avoid mistake	Y
SODA	L	52.7	4/16	$51.90	100	$71	$5,190	2.0	4/16	52.59	1.3%		3.2%	Misc. Capital Goods	No pattern	Good exit to avoid mistake	Y
DIA	L	147.32	4/16	$146.81	100	$22	$14,681	2.0	4/16	147.01	0.1%		0.9%	Misc. Financial Services	No pattern	Good exit to avoid mistake	Y
OIH	L	41.06	4/11	$43.10	100	-$280	$4,310	2.0	4/16	40.28	-6.5%		2.1%	Mkt Vectors Oil Services ETF	ABC pattern, no 22 min BZ	Should exit when bar changed!  Or exit at open gap down!	Y
ALK	S	61.12	4/15	58.51	100	$283	$5,851	2.0	4/16	61.32	-4.8%		3.5%	Airline	Try to pick top, no pattern, but with reasonable 22 min entry	Worst Exit ever!  Scare to death and exit at top	Y
BCR	L	101.68	4/12	$103.03	30	-$32	$3,091	2.0	4/15	101.9	-1.1%		1.0%	Medical Equipment & Supplies	ABC pattern, weekly PP, reasonable, implement BZ will not entry	Get hit on Monday gap down, reasonable exit avoid further loss	Y
DLB	L	32.03	4/12	$32.91	100	-$80	$3,291	2.0	4/15	32.09	-2.5%		1.8%	Motion Pictures	No daily pattern for long, neg. vol, not a good pick	bad pick leads to difficult trade	Y
ALTR	S	32.77	4/12	33.3	100	-$2	$3,330	2.0	4/15	33.26	0.1%		2.5%	Semiconductors	Nice short chart, in SZ, perfect ABC with - vol.	Miss 7% profit by exit without any reason
CRUS	S	20.75	4/12	21.31	100	-$11	$2,131	2.0	4/15	21.18	0.6%		3.7%	Semiconductors	Extended Short, no SZ	Scare out and miss 15% profit	Y
CTXS	S	68.96	4/12	69.98	50	$5	$3,499	2.0	4/15	70.05	-0.1%		2.6%	Software & Programming	Not A chart, lots of resistance,weekly SB red,	good exit, avoid 4% loss	Y

Athena Weekly Review ... 0.3% gain for the week

This week Athena position gain 5%, making 6.1% gain for April.

 

Start from Friday, I’ll only focus on ABC pattern for both long and short setup + using general market direction for position size.

 

I also plan to build up a 20 – 40 positions portfolio and stay with it as long as pattern intact. 

 

As you can see there are 15 positions for the moment.  (*Don’t like DLB, CTXS, BCR, will tighten SL)

 

Which means, my holding time will be much longer … expecting average 1 week to couple weeks.

 

I think once we have more than 100 trades then I can be more confidence with the statistics.

 

Your comment are most appreciated.

 

Cheers,

 

Hsin

 

Symbol	Patterns	Close	In Date	Entry	X Date	Exit	P/L%		ATR%	Industry	Weekly Comment
BCR	L	103.05	4/12	$103.03			0.0%		1.0%	Medical Equipment & Supplies
CE	L	43.96	4/12	$43.75			0.5%		2.9%	Chemical Manufacturing
DLB	L	33.01	4/12	$32.91			0.3%		1.8%	Motion Pictures
FB	L	27.4	4/12	$27.42			-0.1%		2.9%	Computer Services
INTC	L	21.67	4/12	$21.60			0.3%		1.9%	Semiconductors
JNPR	L	18.72	4/12	$18.41			1.7%		3.3%	Communications Equipment
LMCA	L	112.05	4/12	$112.90			-0.8%		2.0%	Communications Services
NSM	L	35.91	4/12	$35.44			1.3%		4.7%	Consumer Financial Services
OIH	L	42.41	4/11	$43.10			-1.6%		1.9%	Mkt Vectors Oil Services ETF
OXY	L	83.39	4/12	$83.01			0.5%		2.0%	Oil & Gas - Integrated
SLB	L	75.66	4/12	$75.39			0.4%		2.0%	Oil Well Services & Equipment
ALTR	S	33.3	4/12	33.3			0.0%		2.5%	Semiconductors
CCJ	S	18.93	4/11	$19.53			3.1%		2.4%	Metal Mining
CRUS	S	21.39	4/12	21.31			-0.4%		3.7%	Semiconductors
CTXS	S Inv. H&S	70.39	4/12	69.98			-0.6%		2.6%	Software & Programming
AAN	L	28.75	4/12	$29.06	4/12	28.9	-0.6%		1.8%	Retail (Specialty)	Wrong pattern, exit at once … will not happen again!
AZO	S TK	393.57	4/10	$390.00	4/12	392.75	-0.7%		1.6%	Auto & Truck Parts	Follow TK Short, no Pattern … will not happen again!
SINA	S	49.83	4/10	$49.22	4/12	48.77	0.9%		3.3%	Computer Services	Not a solid pattern, so Protect Profit
TDC	S	55.2	4/11	$55.83	4/12	55.43	0.7%		2.5%	Computer Services	Not a solid pattern, so Protect Profit
NUS	L	44.91	4/3	$44.06	4/9	45.5	3.3%		2.6%	Personal & Household Prods.	Get whipsaw out due to HLF news, otherwise a 10% gain!!!
INTC	L	20.94	4/2	$21.58	4/5	20.77	-3.8%		1.7%	Semiconductors	Stopout at low point, back to watch list
STO	L	24.19	4/3	$24.42	4/5	23.9	-2.1%		1.2%	Oil & Gas - Integrated	Stopout at low point, back to watch list
BEAM	L	64.3	4/1	$63.25	4/2	65.59	3.7%		1.7%	Beverages (Alcoholic)	Excellent exit, breakout fail, remove from buylist
			Monthly P/L:	0.3%			Weekly P/L:	0.3%